Forecasted that in 2023, seafood exports will earn over 9 billion USD
3 August 2023
What will seafood exports be like in the last months of 2023?
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), it is estimated that by the end of July 2023, seafood exports will reach nearly 5 billion USD, down 25% compared to the same period in 2022. In which, a deep decrease The biggest decrease was still pangasius (down 36%), shrimp and tuna down 27% over the same period last year.
Particularly in July 2023, seafood export was estimated at 830 million USD, down 11% compared to the same period in 2022. In which, shrimp export decreased by 10% to about 345 million USD, pangasius reached 150 million USD, down 20%, tuna slightly down 3%, and other fish down 12% compared to July 2022.
From a market perspective, the most obvious recovery signal was in the Chinese market, in July 2023, it increased by 45% over the same period last year, reaching nearly 180 million USD. Exports to other main markets are still 5 – 40% lower than in July 2022.
According to Ms. Le Hang – Communications Director of VASEP, 3 factors will determine the optimistic export scenario in the second half of the year.
Specifically, the economic performance of major markets is forecasted to be more positive in the second half of the year, plus the fact that the import demand of markets such as the US and China is tending to increase again when the amount of inventory is expected to increase. Stock is running low and preparing orders for the year-end festival and the new year.
The internal resources of enterprises and the seafood supply chain production community are supported promptly in terms of capital, production, and business conditions to maintain a stable supply of raw materials and ensure the availability of goods when the market is ready. demand.
Export products have stable supply and reduced prices, competitive selling prices compared to other countries.
With that favorable scenario, seafood exports in the remaining 5 months of 2023 will probably reach over 4 billion USD, then the total export turnover in 2023 will reach over 9 billion USD, a decrease of 15 – 16% compared to that. with the year 2022.
In which, shrimp is forecasted to earn about 3.5-3.6 billion USD in foreign currency, down 16-18%. Pangasius reached 1.7 – 1.8 billion USD, down 28%. Exports of tuna and squid and octopus will decrease by 14-15% to reach USD 870 million and USD 650 million, respectively. Marine fish exports are estimated at $1.9-2 billion, down slightly from 2022.
The main markets will certainly still bring in less revenue than in 2022. In which, exports to the United States and South Korea will be 24-25% lower than in 2022, and exports to the EU will decrease by 18%. ; The Japanese market will be better thanks to the value of value-added goods and thanks to the processing and processing segment for this market, especially marine fishes.
The Chinese market is still the biggest expectation for seafood enterprises today, after opening, trade is gradually returning to normal. Hopefully, in the second half of the year, China’s economy will be more stable, people’s income and consumption will be improved, and the market will adapt to the new context… Then, seafood exports will have a chance to recover with anticipation. equivalent to the turnover of 2023 with about 1.8 billion USD for both China and Hong Kong (China).
The situation is less optimistic when the market has shown signs of recovery and demand increases again, but Vietnam’s seafood products still find it difficult to compete in price and supply with other countries such as Ecuador, India, and Indonesia. , Thailand…
The industry’s problems have not been solved in the immediate as well as in the long term: high production costs due to high input costs such as feed and seed, low profits, and lack of capital to maintain investment in farming. For the next tasks, she abandoned the pond, leading to a lack of materials to answer orders in the second half of the year…
That scenario can lead to the prediction that exports in the last 5 months of the year can only reach about 3.5-3.7 billion USD, so, in the whole year of 2023, exports may only bring in about 8.5 – $8.7 billion. In which, the deepest decline is still in the two industries of pangasius and shrimp. Seafood exports may be worse if the results of the EU inspection team’s anti-IUU anti-fishing program inspection in October do not meet the expectation of removing the yellow card.
Striving for the goal of 10 billion USD
Regarding export targets, in the first 6 months of 2023, seafood export decreased by 27.4%; In the first 7 months of the year, this decrease was 25.4% with an export turnover of nearly 5 billion USD. Therefore, the figure of 9 billion seafood export turnover for the whole year 2023 is certain to reach. However, to achieve the goal of 10 billion USD, more efforts are needed. “We still keep the target of exporting 10 billion USD of seafood this year,” said Mr. Tran Dinh Luan.
For the seafood industry, Mr. Phung Duc Tien – Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development – said that the ministry has not yet adjusted the export target for this year. “VASEP said there have been positive signals about the market both for shrimp and pangasius. Pangasius exported to the United States reached over 50% of output. However, the United States is pressuring prices. U.S. stocks and inventories fell, while demand was flat. Therefore, we need to prepare reserves so that when the situation and opportunity come, we can seize this opportunity. The same is true for shrimp exports,” said Mr. Phung Duc Tien.
Besides, according to Mr. Phung Duc Tien, currently, a credit package of VND 15,000 billion is being implemented, which will create conditions for businesses to stock up on goods to be able to seize market opportunities when the time comes. “With the direction of the Government, the State Bank, and commercial banks to lower interest rates; this is also a contributing factor for us to reserve, process, and export. Ensure efficiency for processing enterprises. seafood,” said Mr. Phung Duc Tien
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